13 graphs and 9 questions about the 2018 Apple launch
On Wednesday, September 12, Apple is expected to announce the latest iteration of the iPhone at their annual launch event. At Mixpanel, we can slice and dice trends data to gain insight into how end users interact with their iPhones. Here are nine questions that our trends data prompted this year.
1) How long can we reasonably expect Apple to dominate mobile phone usage in the US?
Apple’s devices are more than 60% of the American smartphone market. They are the overwhelmingly powerful player in the space.
The report to watch: Android v. iOS
2) Which previous models will the new release cannibalize?
Will the various new models appeal predominantly to early adopters and eat into the market share of the X, or will people on older models finally make the switch?
The report to watch: Stay tuned. We’ll have a new iPhone release report as soon as we have more details about the new phone.
3) Can Apple dominate the global market the way it dominates the US market?
The fact that Apple wins North America, the Caribbean, and Oceania, is close to Android in Europe, and still has significant usage totals in Asia, Africa and South America is very telling. After all, iOS necessarily indicates an Apple device, while the same is not the case for Android.
4) Will Android figure out how to get its users to adopt the same way that Apple users do?
Apple is consistently more effective at getting its users onto its latest operating system. Giving developers the certainty that users will adopt the latest operating system allows them to build products with confidence. Based on the data, we predict that Apple is likely to get 25% of all its users onto the new OS within a week of announcing it publicly.
Reports to watch: Android OS adoption and iOS 12 adoption (which we’ll go live when that is officially announced).
5) Can these new phones get to 20% of the iPhone market within six months?
It has taken the recent releases 6-7 months to get to 20 percent market share. Will the latest version break the six month barrier?
6) How will the 2018 iPhone releases perform as a collective class?
The 6 family of iPhones was a flat-out monster for Apple. Given the price of these devices, that Apple is able to get 30% or so of users to upgrade each year is a borderline miracle. Still, our data suggests that no single year’s family of phones will be able to reach 50% market share.
7) Will any iPhone ever have the staying power of the 6?
Since the 6S and 6S Plus, the gap between the various phones has been relatively small. Interestingly, the 8 Plus is beating the 8 while the 7 had a higher peak than the 7 Plus. Is the iPhone X acting as an anchor, making it easier for users to justify the cost of the 8 Plus?
8) Will slow and steady win the race for the iPhone 8 against the X?
The higher-end iPhone X got to 6% market share in its second month on the market, and has since doubled to 12%. The most budget-friendly of the 2017 releases, the iPhone 8, didn’t start as hot, but has quadrupled. After two months, it went from 2% to 8%. Does this mean the 8 will prove more resilient to the introduction of a new phone?
Report to watch: iPhone models
9) When, if ever, can the 7 overtake the 6?
The 6 has had a great run for Apple, but is clearly losing share to newer iPhones. The 7 is holding strong for now. How will these numbers change with the introduction with a new device?
Report to watch: iPhone models
Keep an eye on Mixpanel’s Twitter for live coverage of the event, as well as Mixpanel.com/trends, which will feature reports tracking adoption of the new operating system and anticipated new phones as soon as they’re released.